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H.R. 2591 — Mental Health in Aviation Act of 2025
17%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Mental Health in Aviation Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 63% puts enactment at 17%.
→
17%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 69 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 39–96
(quartiles 55–86). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 63%
(simple-majority P = 89%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
72 [43–97] |
90% |
| passage | 81% |
68 [38–96] |
89% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Sean Casten (D). Latest action (2025-09-09):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).