H.R. 2605 — SAVES Act

9%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

SAVES Act — would clear the House (97%, 76 cosponsors) but only 18% to ever get the vote.

18%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

52%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 333 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417 (quartiles 263–407). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	299 [205–411]	94%
suspension	62%	354 [225–419]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Morgan Luttrell (R). Latest action (2025-09-26): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 264.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).