← all forecasts
H.R. 2616 — Stopping Indoctrination and Protecting Kids Act
7%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Stopping Indoctrination and Protecting Kids Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 62% puts enactment at 7%.
→
7%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 72 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 49–97
(quartiles 55–90). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 62%
(simple-majority P = 96%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
75 [51–97] |
98% |
| passage | 81% |
71 [49–97] |
95% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Tim Walberg (R). Latest action (2026-05-21):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).