H.R. 2617 — Say No to Indoctrination Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Say No to Indoctrination Act — would clear the House (94%) but only 4% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 4% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 302 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–415 (quartiles 223–388). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	265 [190–394]	87%
suspension	62%	325 [213–416]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Burgess Owens (R). Latest action (2026-01-13): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 378.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).