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H.R. 2701 — Fallen Servicemembers Religious Heritage Restoration Act
31%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Fallen Servicemembers Religious Heritage Restoration Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 75% puts enactment at 31%.
→
31%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 73 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–97
(quartiles 59–90). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 75%
(simple-majority P = 94%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
75 [48–97] |
95% |
| passage | 81% |
73 [46–97] |
94% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D). Latest action (2025-12-09):
Read twice. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 292.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).