← all forecasts
H.R. 275 — Special Interest Alien Reporting Act of 2025
2%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Special Interest Alien Reporting Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 25% puts enactment at 2%.
→
2%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 55 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 40–79
(quartiles 51–59). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 25%
(simple-majority P = 88%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
55 [33–78] |
88% |
| passage | 81% |
55 [40–79] |
88% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Marjorie Taylor Greene (R). Latest action (2025-06-27):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).