H.R. 2766 — Special District Fairness and Accessibility Act

23%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Special District Fairness and Accessibility Act — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, reported and queued, quiet for 80 days); 96% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

51%

survives downstream

23%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 45% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 317 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–417 (quartiles 236–400). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	271 [197–399]	90%
suspension	62%	345 [218–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Pat Fallon (R). Latest action (2026-03-18): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 32 - 8.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).