H.R. 2768 — Benton MacKaye National Scenic Trail Feasibility Study Act of 2026

14%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Benton MacKaye National Scenic Trail Feasibility Study Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 49% puts enactment at 14%.

✓

passed the House

→

14%

downstream: Senate + President

14%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–95 (quartiles 52–82). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 49% (simple-majority P = 92%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	70 [47–97]	94%
passage	81%	64 [44–94]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann (R). Latest action (2026-06-03): Received in the Senate. Read twice. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 426.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).