H.R. 2804 — Protecting Small Business Competitions Act of 2025

12%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Protecting Small Business Competitions Act — real floor momentum (44% to a vote, reported and queued); 95% if called.

44%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

27%

survives downstream

12%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 44% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 330 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–416 (quartiles 273–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	293 [187–412]	90%
suspension	62%	352 [229–417]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Nydia M. Velázquez (D). Latest action (2026-05-20): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 23 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).