H.R. 2846 — To amend title II of the Public Health Service Act to include as an additional right or privilege of commissioned officers of the Public Health Service (and their beneficiaries) certain leave provided under title 10, Un…

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

To amend title II of the Public Health Service Act — would clear the House (96%) but only 8% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

23%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 8% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 327 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–416 (quartiles 264–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	299 [188–415]	91%
suspension	62%	344 [220–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Chrissy Houlahan (D). Latest action (2025-10-03): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 280.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).