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H.R. 2860 — Northwest Straits Marine Conservation Initiative Reauthorization Act of 2025
6%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Northwest Straits Marine Conservation Initiative Reauthoriz… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 46% puts enactment at 6%.
→
6%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 62 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 29–94
(quartiles 50–77). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 46%
(simple-majority P = 79%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
65 [34–95] |
83% |
| passage | 81% |
62 [29–94] |
79% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Rick Larsen (D). Latest action (2026-06-04):
Received in the Senate. Read twice. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 427.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).