H.R. 301 — GEO Act

15%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

GEO Act — real floor momentum (62% to a vote, on the calendar); 96% if called.

62%

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

25%

survives downstream

15%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 62% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 313 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–416 (quartiles 230–395). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	273 [205–404]	91%
suspension	62%	337 [216–418]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Celeste Maloy (R). Latest action (2026-05-20): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 568.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).