H.R. 302 — Water Rights Protection Act

1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Water Rights Protection Act — would clear the House (94%) but only 13% to ever get the vote.

13%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

10%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 13% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 304 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 220–391). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	263 [203–384]	88%
suspension	62%	329 [213–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Celeste Maloy (R). Latest action (2025-11-25): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 334.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).