H.R. 3087 — Civil Rights Cold Case Records Collection Reauthorization Act

7%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Civil Rights Cold Case Records Collection Reauthorization A… — would clear the House (95%, 20 cosponsors) but only 17% to ever get the vote.

17%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

39%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 17% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 331 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–417 (quartiles 273–401). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	292 [177–411]	88%
suspension	62%	355 [226–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Bonnie Watson Coleman (D). Latest action (2026-05-20): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 36 - 4.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).