H.R. 3159 — Improving SCRA Benefit Utilization Act

24%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Improving SCRA Benefit Utilization Act — reported and queued, quiet for 23 days; 38% to reach the floor, 24% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

64%

survives downstream

24%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 339 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 212–418 (quartiles 290–406). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	303 [196–415]	91%
suspension	62%	361 [233–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: April McClain Delaney (D). Latest action (2026-05-14): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).