H.R. 3168 — National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Reauthorization Act of 2025

5%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Reauthorizati… — reported and queued, quiet for 145 days; 28% to reach the floor, 5% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

19%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 28% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 319 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–417 (quartiles 243–397). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	288 [192–411]	89%
suspension	62%	337 [217–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: David G. Valadao (R). Latest action (2026-01-12): Reported by the Committee on Natural Resources. H. Rept. 119-438, Part I.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).