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H.R. 3187 — To require the Secretary of Agriculture to convey a parcel of property of the Forest Service to Perry County, Arkansas, and for other purposes.
15%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
To require the Secretary of Agriculture to convey a parcel of propert… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 48% puts enactment at 15%.
→
15%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–93
(quartiles 52–80). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 48%
(simple-majority P = 94%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
69 [49–96] |
95% |
| passage | 81% |
64 [47–92] |
93% |
Receipts
Sponsor: J. French Hill (R). Latest action (2025-12-16):
Received in the Senate. Read twice. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 295.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).