← all forecasts
H.R. 33 — To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide special rules for the taxation of certain residents of Taiwan with income from sources within the United States.
14%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide special rules f… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 52% puts enactment at 14%.
→
14%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–96
(quartiles 53–86). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 52%
(simple-majority P = 94%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
71 [48–97] |
96% |
| passage | 81% |
67 [47–95] |
94% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Jason Smith (R). Latest action (2025-01-16):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Finance.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).