← all forecasts
H.R. 3410 — Supersonic Aviation Modernization Act
7%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Supersonic Aviation Modernization Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 41% puts enactment at 7%.
→
7%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 61 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 41–91
(quartiles 51–73). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 41%
(simple-majority P = 90%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
64 [43–95] |
92% |
| passage | 81% |
60 [41–89] |
90% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Troy E. Nehls (R). Latest action (2026-03-25):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).