H.R. 3429 — US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Cooperation Act

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Cooperation Act — would clear the House (96%, 20 cosponsors) but only 8% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

25%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 8% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 332 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417 (quartiles 276–401). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	294 [192–414]	91%
suspension	62%	356 [229–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ami Bera (D). Latest action (2025-07-22): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 47 - 3.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).