H.R. 345 — Fire Department Repayment Act of 2025

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Fire Department Repayment Act — would clear the House (96%) but only 7% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

30%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 7% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 328 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–416 (quartiles 264–400). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	293 [199–414]	90%
suspension	62%	349 [219–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Josh Harder (D). Latest action (2025-07-23): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by Unanimous Consent.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).