H.R. 3455 — Veterans Affairs Distributed Ledger Innovation Act of 2025

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Veterans Affairs Distributed Ledger Innovation Act — would clear the House (95%) but only 8% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

29%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 8% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 321 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–417 (quartiles 243–403). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	283 [182–408]	89%
suspension	62%	345 [218–419]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Nancy Mace (R). Latest action (2025-10-10): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 292.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).