H.R. 3706 — SUSHI Act

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

SUSHI Act — reported and queued, quiet for 115 days; 21% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

21%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 21% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 310 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 224–392). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	259 [197–388]	89%
suspension	62%	340 [217–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Brian Babin (R). Latest action (2026-02-11): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute (Amended) by Unanimous Consent.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).