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H.R. 3709 — Advancing the Mentor-Protégé Program for Small Financial Institutions Act
5%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Advancing the Mentor-Protégé Program for Small Financial In… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 58% puts enactment at 5%.
→
5%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 40–96
(quartiles 54–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 58%
(simple-majority P = 89%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
70 [41–96] |
90% |
| passage | 81% |
67 [40–95] |
88% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Joyce Beatty (D). Latest action (2026-05-13):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).