H.R. 3756 — FISH Act of 2025

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

FISH Act — reported and queued, quiet for 46 days; 37% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

37%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

11%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 37% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 316 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–417 (quartiles 235–395). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	272 [201–397]	89%
suspension	62%	343 [218–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Dan Crenshaw (R). Latest action (2026-04-21): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by Unanimous Consent.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).