H.R. 3766 — To prohibit the District of Columbia from requiring tribunals in court or administrative proceedings in the District of Columbia to defer to the Mayor of the District of Columbia's interpretation of statutes and regulat…

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

To prohibit the District of Columbia from requiring tribunals in cour… — on the calendar, quiet for 24 days; 37% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

37%

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

11%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 37% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 288 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 204–412 (quartiles 215–379). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	257 [190–391]	86%
suspension	62%	306 [209–414]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Harriet M. Hageman (R). Latest action (2026-05-13): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 565.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).