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H.R. 3872 — MERICA Act of 2025
3%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
MERICA Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 35% puts enactment at 3%.
→
3%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 58 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–85
(quartiles 51–67). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 35%
(simple-majority P = 91%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
59 [42–84] |
91% |
| passage | 81% |
58 [45–85] |
91% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Pat Fallon (R). Latest action (2026-02-12):
Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee on Public Lands, Forests, and Mining. Hearings held.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).