← all forecasts
H.R. 3903 — Chugach Alaska Land Exchange Oil Spill Recovery Act of 2025
16%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Chugach Alaska Land Exchange Oil Spill Recovery Act of 2025 — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 42% puts enactment at 16%.
→
16%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 61 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–90
(quartiles 52–74). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 42%
(simple-majority P = 93%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
65 [49–94] |
96% |
| passage | 81% |
61 [44–88] |
93% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Nicholas J. Begich III (R). Latest action (2026-03-04):
Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).