H.R. 3924 — Wildfire Risk Evaluation Act

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Wildfire Risk Evaluation Act — reported and queued, quiet for 23 days; 31% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

31%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

10%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 31% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 323 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–416 (quartiles 259–396). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	287 [176–410]	88%
suspension	62%	346 [219–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Joe Neguse (D). Latest action (2026-05-14): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute (Amended) by Unanimous Consent.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).