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H.R. 4016 — Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2026
19%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Department of Defense Appropriations Act — must-pass class. Waiting on the senate, quiet for 180 days; the 19% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.
→
19%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–95
(quartiles 53–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 53%
(simple-majority P = 92%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
69 [44–96] |
92% |
| passage | 81% |
66 [44–95] |
92% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Ken Calvert (R). Latest action (2025-12-08):
Motion to proceed to consideration of measure made in Senate. (CR S8522)
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).