H.R. 4058 — Enhancing Stakeholder Support and Outreach for Preparedness Grants Act

11%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Enhancing Stakeholder Support and Outreach for Preparedness… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 64% puts enactment at 11%.

✓

passed the House

→

11%

downstream: Senate + President

11%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 42–96 (quartiles 55–85). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 64% (simple-majority P = 90%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	70 [43–97]	91%
passage	81%	68 [42–96]	90%

Receipts

Sponsor: Daniel S. Goldman (D). Latest action (2025-11-20): Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).