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H.R. 4070 — Tren de Aragua Border Security Threat Assessment Act
5%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Tren de Aragua Border Security Threat Assessment Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 31% puts enactment at 5%.
→
5%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 57 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 40–82
(quartiles 51–64). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 31%
(simple-majority P = 89%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
57 [38–84] |
89% |
| passage | 81% |
57 [41–82] |
89% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Brad Knott (R). Latest action (2025-11-20):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).