H.R. 4121 — Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2026

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Rel… — must-pass class. On the calendar, quiet for 346 days; the <1% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

35%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 87% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 276 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 180–408 (quartiles 213–352). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	256 [168–391]	80%
suspension	62%	289 [196–412]	91%

Receipts

Sponsor: Andy Harris (R). Latest action (2025-06-25): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 138.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).