H.R. 421 — Small Business Regulatory Flexibility Improvements Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Small Business Regulatory Flexibility Improvements Act — would clear the House (93%) but only 1% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

10%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 287 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 204–412 (quartiles 214–377). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	255 [190–382]	88%
suspension	62%	307 [209–414]	96%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ben Cline (R). Latest action (2025-06-10): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 13 - 12.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).