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H.R. 4215 — International Traffic in Arms Regulations Licensing Reform Act
8%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
International Traffic in Arms Regulations Licensing Reform… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 45% puts enactment at 8%.
→
8%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 43–93
(quartiles 52–77). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 45%
(simple-majority P = 91%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
65 [45–95] |
92% |
| passage | 81% |
62 [42–92] |
91% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Michael Baumgartner (R). Latest action (2025-09-03):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).