H.R. 4238 — DLARA

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

DLARA — would clear the House (96%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

15%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 308 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–415 (quartiles 226–392). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	269 [192–400]	90%
suspension	62%	331 [215–416]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Tim Moore (R). Latest action (2026-05-20): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 23 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).