H.R. 425 — Repealing Big Brother Overreach Act

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Repealing Big Brother Overreach Act — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, reported and queued, quiet for 46 days); 94% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 45% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 288 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–412 (quartiles 215–379). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	254 [203–383]	89%
suspension	62%	308 [209–414]	96%

Receipts

Sponsor: Warren Davidson (R). Latest action (2026-04-21): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 26 - 25.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).