H.R. 4290 — Downwinder Commemoration Act of 2025

13%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Downwinder Commemoration Act — reported and queued, quiet for 46 days; 30% to reach the floor, 13% to become law.

30%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

43%

survives downstream

13%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 30% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 335 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–417 (quartiles 278–405). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	295 [186–413]	90%
suspension	62%	360 [224–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Gabe Vasquez (D). Latest action (2026-04-21): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by Unanimous Consent.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).