H.R. 4312 — SCORE Act

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

SCORE Act — would clear the House (97%, 22 cosponsors) but only 18% to ever get the vote.

18%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

17%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 331 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417 (quartiles 253–405). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	292 [206–411]	93%
suspension	62%	354 [224–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Gus M. Bilirakis (R). Latest action (2025-12-01): Rules Committee Resolution H. Res. 916 Reported to House. Rule provides for consideration of H.R. 4312, H.R. 1005, H.R. 1049, H.R. 1069, H.R. 2965 and H.R. 4305. The resolution provides for consideration of H.R. 4312, H.R. 1005, H.R. 1049, H.R. 1069, H.R. 2965, and H.R. 4305 under a closed rule with
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).