H.R. 4335 — Abraham Accords Defense Against Terror Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Abraham Accords Defense Against Terror Act — would clear the House (96%, 35 cosponsors) but only 11% to ever get the vote.

11%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 11% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 316 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–416 (quartiles 238–395). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	273 [202–399]	90%
suspension	62%	342 [219–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Michael Lawler (R). Latest action (2025-07-22): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 31 - 19.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).