H.R. 435 — Direct Hire To Fight Fires

19%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Direct Hire To Fight Fires — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, reported and queued, quiet for 149 days); 96% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

42%

survives downstream

19%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 45% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 320 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–417 (quartiles 236–402). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	275 [201–407]	90%
suspension	62%	347 [220–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Darrell Issa (R). Latest action (2026-01-08): Reported by the Committee on Natural Resources. H. Rept. 119-432, Part I.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).