H.R. 4465 — To amend chapters 4, 10, and 131 of title 5, United States Code, as necessary to keep those chapters current and to correct related technical errors.

1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To amend chapters 4, 10, and 131 of title 5, United States Code, as n… — would clear the House (95%) but only 4% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

37%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 4% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 307 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 224–396). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	261 [192–391]	88%
suspension	62%	334 [215–418]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Derek Schmidt (R). Latest action (2025-09-10): Ordered to be Reported by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).