H.R. 4541 — EARLY Act Reauthorization of 2025

11%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

EARLY Act — reported and queued; 28% to reach the floor, 11% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

39%

survives downstream

11%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 28% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 328 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–417 (quartiles 268–398). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	296 [196–414]	91%
suspension	62%	348 [221–417]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D). Latest action (2026-05-21): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 48 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).