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H.R. 4553 — Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2026
21%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropria… — must-pass class. Waiting on the senate, quiet for 269 days; the 21% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.
→
21%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–95
(quartiles 52–81). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 48%
(simple-majority P = 93%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
67 [43–96] |
91% |
| passage | 81% |
65 [46–94] |
93% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann (R). Latest action (2025-09-10):
Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 156.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).