H.R. 4584 — To make technical amendments to update statutory references to certain provisions which were formerly classified to chapters 14 and 19 of title 25, United States Code, and to correct related technical errors.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To make technical amendments to update statutory references to certai… — would clear the House (93%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

17%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 300 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–415 (quartiles 219–383). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	262 [193–386]	85%
suspension	62%	324 [211–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Michael Baumgartner (R). Latest action (2025-09-10): Ordered to be Reported by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).