H.R. 4684 — Star-Spangled Summit Act of 2026

14%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Star-Spangled Summit Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 44% puts enactment at 14%.

✓

passed the House

→

14%

downstream: Senate + President

14%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 46–94 (quartiles 52–78). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 44% (simple-majority P = 93%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	66 [46–95]	93%
passage	81%	63 [46–93]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mike Kennedy (R). Latest action (2026-05-20): Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).