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H.R. 471 — Fix Our Forests Act
21%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Fix Our Forests Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 47% puts enactment at 21%.
→
21%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–94
(quartiles 52–81). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 47%
(simple-majority P = 94%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
69 [49–96] |
95% |
| passage | 81% |
64 [47–93] |
94% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Bruce Westerman (R). Latest action (2025-03-06):
Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Subcommittee on Conservation, Forestry, Natural Resources, and Biotechnology. Hearings held. With printed Hearing: S.Hrg. 119-27.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).