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H.R. 5140 — To lower the age at which a minor may be tried as an adult for certain criminal offenses in the District of Columbia to 14 years of age.
13%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
To lower the age at which a minor may be tried as an adult for certai… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 44% puts enactment at 13%.
→
13%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 64 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 46–93
(quartiles 52–79). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 44%
(simple-majority P = 93%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
65 [48–95] |
94% |
| passage | 81% |
63 [46–92] |
93% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Brandon Gill (R). Latest action (2025-09-17):
Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).