H.R. 5143 — District of Columbia Policing Protection Act of 2025

11%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

District of Columbia Policing Protection Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 43% puts enactment at 11%.

✓

passed the House

→

11%

downstream: Senate + President

11%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 63 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–93 (quartiles 52–78). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 43% (simple-majority P = 92%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	63 [41–95]	89%
passage	81%	62 [45–92]	93%

Receipts

Sponsor: Clay Higgins (R). Latest action (2025-09-18): Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).