H.R. 5166 — Financial Services and General Government Appropriations Act, 2026

0%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Financial Services and General Government Appropriations Act — must-pass class. On the calendar, quiet for 274 days; the 0% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

37%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 91% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 0% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 290 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 201–412 (quartiles 217–370). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	273 [194–393]	86%
suspension	62%	301 [204–414]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: David P. Joyce (R). Latest action (2025-09-05): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 193.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).